Wilson, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

918
FXUS62 KRAH 281610
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1210 PM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure aloft will persist over the region through
midweek, resulting in a prolonged heat wave. A cold front will
approach from the northwest Thursday night, then settle south
through the area Friday through Friday night, bringing high
rain chances and ushering in cooler temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1210 PM Monday...

* Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remain in effect for all of
  central NC through 8 pm this evening.

Post-outflow nly sfc flow persists across central NC this afternoon.
This has slowed down the rapid rise in heat we`ve seen each of the
past few days.  Still expecting temps to push the mid to upper 90s
through peak heating today with heat index values reaching the 105
to 110 range for much of the area.

Convection wise, think we`ll see a bit less coverage today compared
to last evening. A weak vorticity perturbation was evident on
satellite this morning, oozing south across the Coastal Plain.
Further upstream, convection has blossomed along the western slopes
of the TN/NC/VA mountains. Suspect that this mountain convection
will push east-southeast into the Foothills and eventually our
southern/western Piedmont later this afternoon and evening. Further
east, think coverage will be highest along the NC/SC border where
lingering outflow from last night and along the inland penetrating
sea breeze.  The strong DCAPE gradient that was over us yesterday
has shifted into South Carolina today. Additionally, bulk-layer
shear is negligible today (~10 kts or so). As such, don`t think
we`ll have as big of a severe risk today although surely a stronger
updraft could produce isolated damaging wind gusts. However, given
the lack of shear today, slower moving storms could cause isolated
high rain rates and a low-end chance for flash flooding. In fact,
the latest 12Z HREF 6 hrly LPMM field shows a signal for some decent
rain rates in the Sandhills/Coastal Plain vicinity.

Any lingering convection should generally wane with loss of heating
(although can`t rule out additional convection along any lingering
outflow boundaries through early tonight).  Warm overnight lows in
the mid to upper 70s are expected again.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

* Heat Advisory issued for portions of central NC

* Scattered showers and storms possible

While the upper ridge will weaken a bit and move westward on
Tuesday, heat indices will remain dangerously high during the
daytime hours. While high temps should reach the low to mid 90s,
heat indices should range from 105-109 across the Triangle,
Sandhills, and southern Coastal Plain. As such, a new Heat Advisory
has been issued for these areas from 10a-8p. Given the position of
the upper ridge relative to where it was this weekend, it would
appear that Extreme Heat Warnings won`t be needed but that should
not diminish the fact that these are still dangerously high temps
and heat indices.

Storms are possible once again Tuesday with PoPs in the 30-50
percent range, primarily across the NW Piedmont/Sandhills/southern
Coastal Plain. 00Z HREF shows relatively limited coverage from the
Triangle northward to the VA state line and I will keep PoPs lowest
in those areas.

Lows Tuesday night in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

* Oppressive, long-duration heat wave continues through mid-to-late
  week. Temperatures expected to return to near or below average
  Friday through the weekend.

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances each afternoon, with
  increased chances on Thursday and Friday with a passing cold front.

The mid-level ridge and surface high pressure will continue to move
westward over the work week. This will allow temperatures to remain
up to 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Maximum temperatures will
generally be in the mid-to-upper 90s on Wednesday and in the low-to-
mid 90s on Thursday. This will allow maximum heat indices in the
lower 100s in the west, reaching upper 100s in central and eastern
portions of the CWA. Thus, additional heat advisories may be needed
for central and eastern portions of the region on Wednesday and
Thursday. Wednesday afternoon and evening, isolated showers and
embedded storms are possible once again. Rain chances increase
Thursday into Friday, ahead of a cold front that looks to pass
through the region sometime Thursday night or Friday. Based on
MUCAPE values around 2000 J/kg and increasing deep-layer wind shear
values, Thursday evening looks to have a decent chance for organized
showers and storms, some of which could be severe. Isolated to
scattered rain chances linger through the weekend as well as the
front looks to linger to our south. The frontal passage will bring
an end to the oppressive heat, with temperatures returning to below
normal over the weekend. Maximum temperatures look to fall into the
low-to-mid 80s by Saturday and Sunday afternoon, with lows below 70
degrees returning each night from Friday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 633 AM Monday...

Outside of some localized IFR fog and stratus at RWI, conditions are
VFR across the area this morning. Will keep VFR weather in all TAFs
through mid afternoon, at which point storm chances increase with
Prob30`s for thunder from 20Z-23Z. Will keep storm chances out of
RDU given most guidance showing storms dissipating before reaching
the terminal.

Outlook: Typical summer weather across the area with diurnally
driven showers and storms. Storm chances are likely to peak on
Thursday as a trough moves through the Mid Atlantic, with lesser
chances on Friday.  Outside of showers/storms, VFR weather expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Abnormally hot and humid weather continues across central NC. High
temperature records will be difficult to break with records in the
low/mid 100s, but abnormally warm overnight lows could jeopardize
several record high minimum temperatures. Cooler temperatures are
expected late in the week following the passage of a cold front.

Record High Temperatures:

July 28 (Monday):
KGSO: 100/1952
KRDU: 104/1952
KFAY: 105/1940

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 101/1952
KRDU: 104/2011
KFAY: 103/2011

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 100/1915
KRDU: 101/1953
KFAY: 105/2011

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 28 (Monday):
KGSO: 74/2023
KRDU: 77/2023
KFAY: 79/2016

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 78/2023
KFAY: 79/2002

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/1931
KFAY: 79/2002

July 31 (Thursday):
KGSO: 75/1917
KRDU: 77/2020
KFAY: 78/1941

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>009-021-022-038-
039-073-074-083.
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ010-011-
023>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ023>025-040>042-
073>078-083>086-088-089.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Luchetti
SHORT TERM...Leins
LONG TERM...Helock
AVIATION...Leins
CLIMATE...RAH