701
FXUS62 KRAH 281750
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
150 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No major chances with the early afternoon forecast update.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 145 PM Sunday...
1) Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging
straight-line winds and heavy rainfall will be possible this
afternoon into this evening.
2) A significant heat wave is forecast across central NC from mid
week into the holiday weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 145 PM Sunday...
KEY MESSAGE 1... Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms
capable of damaging straight-line winds and heavy rainfall will
be possible this afternoon into this evening.
Latest satellite and regional radar show widespread and
persistent mid-level cloud layer has slowed the rise in
temperatures across the region, but some breaks and weak theta-e
advection has overcome the lack of insolation to a degree. Also
evident are the two primary drivers of showers/storms expected
this afternoon into this evening; the first is a weakening
cluster of showers/storms currently over the southern
Appalachians and is being driven by an MCV from upstream
convection over the OH/TN Valley`s this morning. The other is
low-amplitude but larger convectively modified disturbance
which is just now moving into southwest VA. This wave is
currently driving the deepening area of showers in VA just
across the border near Martinsville.
The preceding air mass over the Carolinas features temperatures
in the mid/upper 80s into the low 90s with surface dew points
in the upper 60s to mid 70s, and is contributing to moderate
instability on the order of 1000-2000 MLCAPE and 100-125 CAPE in
the lowest 3 km (which may support air mass storms across the
Sandhills and southern Piedmont) based on SPC mesoanalysis data.
This will likely be supportive for additional convection into
central NC as these driving features move into the area. Mid-
lvl winds from KGSP and KFCX VWP data suggest around 30 kts of
flow accompanying the disturbances to support loosely organized
multicell clusters along common cold pools. Isolated to
scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will be the primary
hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores
until around sunset.
Although convective mode will be rather progressive with around
20 kts of flow in the 850-300 mb layer, coverage of storms may
become locally numerous to result in some cell mergers and brief
training of enhanced rainfall rates/duration to produce
isolated instances of urban and poor drainage flooding. 12z HREF
and 06z REFS probs for exceeding flash flood guidance are only
about 5-10% around the I-95 corridor. A greater risk exists
into the Coastal Plain and towards the NC coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2... A significant heat wave is forecast across
central NC from mid week into the holiday weekend.
Upper ridging will strengthen across much of the eastern CONUS
by the middle of this week, with 594-597dm 500mb heights
forecast across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic, and
Southeast US as early as Tuesday. Lower level temperatures
thicknesses don`t see a significant response until Wednesday,
after which point they remain elevated through the end of the
week into the weekend. 850mb temps are forecast to rise to
around 23-26C Wednesday through Friday (Friday being the
warmest) which would reach well into the 95th-99th percentile of
observed 850mb temps at GSO per their upper air climatology.
From an NWP perspective, this morning`s 00Z EC Ensemble Extreme
Forecast Index MaxT data also suggest an anomalously hot stretch
of weather, with a few Shift of Tails contours of 1 appearing
in the data (meaning a few outliers are present in the
ensemble). All this is to say this is a high confidence forecast
of significant heat across the region later this week, with
numerous locations seeing consecutive days of 100+ afternoon
temperatures. Overnight relief will be hard to come by during
this period with lows in the mid 70s across the western
Piedmont, and only falling into the upper 70s/around 80 to the
east. Several daily record high temperatures and record warm
minimum temperatures will be threatened during this stretch. See
the Climate section below for a day by day breakdown from
Wednesday through Saturday.
There is decent agreement among the large scale ensemble
guidance that the ridge will break down on Saturday. While
temperatures will remain above normal, the axis of greatest heat
should dampen significantly across central NC as upper flow
takes on a northwesterly component, potentially opening the door
to a returned period of afternoon showers/storms and subsequent
relief from the worst of the heat.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM Sunday...
The bimodal convective clusters solution described in a previous
discussion is becoming more likely based on observations and latest
12z hi-res model guidance. The first is a weakening cluster of
showers/storms over the southern Appalachians, which is progged to
move ESE relatively along the NC/SC border into early this evening.
This cluster may affect FAY and bring reduced vsbys from heavy rain,
thunder, and gusty winds, although some guidance hints this may move
just south of FAY. Isolated air mass thunderstorms may develop ahead
of this cluster in the vicinity of FAY and the PROB30 was pulled
forward to cover this threat.
The second cluster is expected to develop from some deepening
showers in southwest VA. This area is forecast to continue to deepen
and also drift ESE and may glance the Triad terminals, then continue
on to potentially affect RDU and then RWI late this afternoon into
the evening. Reduced vsby from heavy rain, thunder and gusty erratic
winds will be possible with these storms. Patchy fog would be
possible Mon morning around any terminals that receive heavy
rain through this evening. After storms exit the area to the
east this evening, a backdoor front, currently over northern VA,
will sag generally southwest into NC late night into Mon
morning. Behind this front, IFR to LIFR cigs are expected which
will be slow to lift Mon morning.
Outlook: Largely VFR conditions expected to prevail from Mon
afternoon through mid-week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
All-time High Temperature Record and Most Recent Date of
Occurrence:
KGSO: 104/1914-07-27
KRDU: 106/2024-07-05
KFAY: 107/2007-08-09
Record High Temperatures:
July 1: KGSO: 99/2012 KRDU: 103/2012 KFAY: 104/1959
July 2: KGSO: 98/1954 KRDU: 101/1954 KFAY: 106/1931
July 3: KGSO: 98/1911 KRDU: 101/2012 KFAY: 102/2019
July 4: KGSO: 98/1970 KRDU: 101/2024 KFAY: 98/2019
All-time High Minimum Temperature Record and Most Recent Date
of Occurrence:
KGSO: 80/2007-08-09
KRDU: 80/2025-07-18
KFAY: 84/1928-06-22
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
July 1: KGSO: 77/1970 KRDU: 78/2025 KFAY: 76/1990
July 2: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 78/1931 KFAY: 77/1931
July 3: KGSO: 76/2018 KRDU: 79/2023 KFAY: 76/2023
July 4: KGSO: 73/2018 KRDU: 79/1902 KFAY: 78/1913
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...AS/Leins
AVIATION...AS
CLIMATE...RAH
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